As long as I can remember, beginning in early March, the real estate world would eagerly await the start of the “Spring Market.”
In the winter months, we’d excuse low traffic due to the weather because people don’t want to be walking outside in the snow and cold touring apartments. The light and views, so important in NYC apartments, don’t have the same “wow” factor in those winter months.
In the summer, the city can feel like a ghost town, except for the tourists and piles of stinky trash. Vacations and summer homes tend to take potential homebuyers out of the city in those summer months.
And in the fall, everyone is back to school/work and too busy to think about buying a new home and moving, as the holidays are looming and life is just too hectic.
But the spring! Everyone loves to shop in the spring, and almost everything sells during this time.
April, May, and June are the months of the much-lauded “Spring Selling Season.” The weather gets better. The sun sets later. We shed our winter jackets, and the streets become alive with energy. You can feel it – and it comes right about the time New Yorkers are questioning their choice of living in this cold, wet, dreary town. But then, the light and the warmth return, the grass starts growing in the parks, flowers pop up in the gardens – and New York comes alive, and then we are once again so grateful to be living in the most amazing city in the world.
This year: Spring came early – and not just the weather. Despite inflation, higher interest rates, a crypto debacle, and a banking meltdown, the “Spring Market” is already in full swing and has not disappointed.
Why?
The inventory is tight – buts it’s not a seller’s market. And people aren’t spending frivolously, so it’s not a buyer’s market, either.
Yes, if you are a buyer – inventory is low. Due to the crazy housing boom of the last two years, most sellers have sold already. Today’s sellers are selling due to necessity rather than opportunity, and there are simply fewer of those people. Inventory is even tighter if you’re looking for a new development. The life cycle of a new development project is between five and ten years, so what we are dealing with now are the remnants of the market that started pre-COVID. Very few developers were making moves during the pandemic, and therefore, there is less inventory to show for it.
On the flip side, buyers are not being crazy with their money. We aren’t seeing those irrational purchases right now. Banking is too hectic, and interest rates are too high. Buyers have a limit, and they are not budging past it. Even though rents are still high, buyers would rather sign a lease and wait the market out rather than overpay for a property.
It is one of those interesting markets where everyone needs to be realistic. Sellers can’t ask too much, or their buyers will walk away and take a nice rental. On the flip side, buyers can’t offer too little because there is likely another buyer right behind you that will come up in price – just not too much higher. Yes, bidding wars are back – but they aren’t getting crazy. In this market, pragmatism wins the day.
Side Bar:
In August 1954, one of America's greatest artists, Clifford Brown, recorded Joy Spring with Harold Land, Richie Powell, George Morrow and Max Roach. The title of the song has nothing to do with the season and everything to do with Clifford’s wife Larue. It was her pet name.
This song became his signature work and is one of my favorite jazz recordings. You can listen to it HERE.
Let’s do this.
–Shaun