Real estate agents get the same question from their clients every four years. Usually, a month before the presidential election, our clients ask us, "What impact do you think the election will have on the market?" I've long said that real estate agents have access to the most valuable data and insight into the market. After all, we have the inside track directly from buyers and sellers. However, asking us about the effects on the market because of a presidential election is a stretch. If an economist can't accurately predict the effects of an election's outcome on the real estate market, then why do our clients think a real estate agent has any idea?
I do hear a lot of chatter about it, though. So, what are my clients saying to me? Here are quotes from actual clients over the last few weeks and my thoughts.
"I'm leaving the country if Harris/Trump is elected because this will be the end of democracy as we know it." My take: There will be no mass exodus. Where are you going anyway?
"I don't care if Trump idolizes Hitler; he will lower my taxes, and that is all I care about." My take: Yuval Noah Harari correctly describes money as the apogee of human tolerance and a "new religion." This particular client is a multimillionaire. The potential change in his tax rate will have zero effect on his lifestyle. He is just an asshole.
"I'm so anxious". My take: Election anxiety is real, and stress can be debilitating, but once the election is over, people will feel better.
"The next president needs to deport all the immigrants, and our city will be safer." My take: When I first heard this, I took offense. I looked at the person and said, "You know I am an immigrant?" And their response was well, "Not immigrants like you." This translates to - white immigrants are just fine. Putting the racism aside here, local leaders have far more impact on our day-to-day lives than the president. Concerns about our national immigration plan are valid, but it's bigger than one man or woman, in this case.
"This election will make or break NY." My take: See my response to 4 above, and remember that NYC and the US have experienced far more difficult times, and we have always come out better than before - even in real estate.
There was a comprehensive study to see how/if the real estate market was affected by presidential elections. They found that sales dipped in the second half of the year over the past twenty years, in even-numbered years, and in odd years, they rebounded. In presidential election years and even years, election year sales were down 2.5% in Manhattan. In the following year, they rebounded 8.5%. This is why we will not see a long-term drag on the economy; right after election day, we should see activity pick up as anxiety wanes.
My advice is to go vote first. Early voting in New York starts tomorrow. Then, call me after the first week of November, and I'll gladly help you buy or sell your home. In the meantime, watch the World Series, read a good book, or enjoy the beautiful weather—but you need to calm down.
Let's do this!
-Shaun