I have a deep respect and appreciation for experts. Thanks to some brilliant scientists, there will eventually be a trusted vaccine that will bring this pandemic to an end – or maybe more like a slow stop. COVID will eventually be defeated or become something we can seasonally manage. However, it will have left a terrible path of destruction and devastation behind. I’m certain that history won’t look favorably on our lack of preparedness or ultimate response. We were warned about this – and we did little about it. We also know from scientists that there will be more of these events in the future. David Sinclair devoted a chapter of his 2019 book “Lifespan – Why We Age and Why We Don’t Have To” to the certainty of future pandemics. He is just one of the many experts who foresaw this pandemic and has stern warnings about our future. But what will we do about it?
I’m not sure why, but we tend to turn a blind eye and deaf ear to warnings from experts. We don’t prepare for catastrophe even when we know one is inevitable. We won’t make the small sacrifices today even when we know that proper planning and small investments now will save millions of lives and billions of dollars in the future.
Mayor Bloomberg and other experts warned us about climate change and the impact the rising sea level will have to the future of Lower Manhattan. Hurricane Sandy was a precursor to what is predicted to come, but we still are refusing to take early initiatives to stave off future disasters.
We aren’t sitting in the dark without warning. We just don’t seem to want to do anything about it.
The same is true for housing. Right now, there is a lot of noise from people looking for attention and headlines saying cities are over. However, our experts tell us otherwise. Prior to Covid-19 there was a trend towards urbanization. People are naturally drawn to cultural, social, and economic centers as a place to make their home. There is value placed on the proximity to amazing restaurants, shops, museums, clubs, parks, and not to mention the easy commute to work (even if you’re working part-time from home.) Sadly, right now, COVID has made many of these assets more difficult, or in some cases, impossible to enjoy. Some people are choosing to leave the urban centers and run out to the suburbs. But the interesting thing is that they are often buying homes from people taking the opportunity to move back into the city in order to get deals on apartments they would have never been able to otherwise. These people KNOW it is not if – but when – New York will make its resurgence. Because it always does. And each time its better than before. The smart ones, they know.
But here is the problem. Developers in the city are still making massive ultra-luxury apartments. This defies logic. Housing experts have told us that people want smaller homes. Smarter homes. Less maintenance. More efficiency. Yet I still see 90% of developers looking to capture the 0.01% of the luxury market. This isn’t smart. These are not the properties we need for the buyers who will be key to reinvigorating the city. And yes, I know land costs are high and construction costs are even higher. There are smart solutions out there. You just have to be brave enough to try and bold enough to listen. Experts have told us that there is a housing shortage in the United States of more than 4 million homes. Ultimately, people will trend towards cities once again – but are we building them what they actually want?
The answers we need are often spelled out to us by experts. We have the choice to listen to them or not.
Let’s do this.
-Shaun