Five Predictions for 2026
Every year at this time, I make a few predictions about the year ahead.
Here are my predictions for 2026:
1. There Have Been Fewer Than 10 $100M+ Sales, and the 2019 Record Will Still Stand
In the history of Manhattan residential real estate, there have been fewer than ten sales above $100 million. That is fewer than Palm Beach and fewer than Los Angeles.
The record remains Ken Griffin’s $238 million purchase of a quadruplex at 220 Central Park South in 2019, and it will still stand in 2026. Not because the wealth is not there, but because the property isn’t.
There are a handful of truly extraordinary projects planned for Fifth Avenue along Central Park that may eventually have the scale and positioning to challenge that number. But those buildings are still years away from delivery, let alone offering. Until then, this ceiling will stay where it has been for the last 7 years.
2. The Mamdani Effect Will Be Muted
Mayor Zohran Mamdani will generate headlines, debate, and concern. But these headlines will not alter New York’s underlying trajectory.
In 2026, the city will continue to strengthen its position as the cultural and entrepreneurial center of the world. Artists, founders, builders, and dreamers will keep coming, not because New York is easy, but because it remains unmatched.
For most New Yorkers, daily life will not be adversely impacted as long as the basics hold. Streets that feel safe. Subways that function. Storefronts that are active and cared for. When those fundamentals are protected, the city works and people stay. New York has always rewarded ambition. That won’t change in 2026.
3. Zoning Will Disappoint, and the Middle Class Will Still Be Squeezed
Zoning reform will once again fall short. This is not accidental. Special interest groups, YIMBYism, political positions and community activists will continue to put a wrench in the wheel Everyone agrees there is a housing problem, but zoning, the one lever that actually needs to change to build for the middle class, never moves far enough.
Luxury housing will continue to find a way. Subsidized housing will continue to exist unevenly. But housing for the middle class remains stuck in the middle, too regulated to pencil, too expensive to subsidize, and too politically inconvenient to prioritize. This will remain as the city’s most unresolved failure.
4. The Highest Priced Sale of 2026 Will Be Downtown and is Likely Already in Contract
The highest priced residential sale of 2026 will not be on Fifth Avenue or Billionaires’ Row. It will be downtown, most likely at 80 Clarkson, and it may already be in contract.
80 Clarkson gets the fundamentals right. Scale. Architecture. Privacy. Proportion. Location. It doesn’t try to shout. It stands apart as the best residential project of 2025 and deserves the success it has received to date. It also signals where value is heading in New York. Downtown.
5. The AI Bust Is Coming, and Real Estate Still Will Not Notice
Many people far smarter than me are already predicting an AI bust. One of the giants, either NVIDIA or OpenAI, will eventually reprice meaningfully as expectations collide with reality.
In real estate, it will not matter. The industry’s technology record over the past twenty years has been abysmal. We still don’t have a consistent, interoperable MLS. Data remains fragmented, unreliable, and politicized. In 2026, everyone will say they are using AI. Almost no one will be meaningfully better because of it.
What will continue is consolidation. Real estate has never been a technology business, and 2026 will not change that.
Sidebar: One of the Greatest Concerts That Was Never Recorded
On December 31, 1961, a legendary New Year’s Eve jazz concert took place at Carnegie Hall, featuring an extraordinary lineup that included John Coltrane, Sonny Rollins, Thelonious Monk, and Nina Simone.
There is no recording. No tape. No album. Only stories, and the understanding that something rare happened in that room.
Some greatness is not meant to be replayed. It exists because the right people showed up, in the right city, at the right moment.
New York has always been good at that.
Here’s a beautiful live recording that does exist of Monk and Coltrane at Carnegie Hall in November 1957.
Let's do this-
Shaun