One of the biggest headlines yesterday read: “‘Mamdani effect’: Miami realtors report 166% spike in inquiries from wealthy NYC residents.”
Anyone with half a brain knows this is data that belongs in a dumpster.
This is exactly the kind of nonsense that makes our industry look unserious and unreliable. Because too often, it is. Self-serving quotes dressed up as “market insight” drag down the entire profession. Consumers want real information, but the truth is there is no such thing as perfectly accurate, real-time real estate data. And the press still has pages to fill.
Insiders know the reality. There is no mechanism to measure our market. None.
There’s no call center logging every inquiry to every agent, which would be the only true measure of demand.
There’s no universal sign-in sheet for open houses or showings, which would be the only real measure of traffic.
There’s no centralized log of offers submitted, which would be the only real measure of market intensity.
Brokers don’t share that information.
Layer on the rise of off-market listings, off-market deals, and zero regulated reporting, and our “data transparency” is actually moving backwards.
So what we’re left with is a steady stream of quotes that conveniently reinforce the agenda of whoever is doing the talking.
A few weeks ago, right after the election, I was at a party in Miami. Almost everyone there was a real estate agent, and every one of them asked me whether I was seeing an exodus from New York. They were licking their chops, waiting for their phones to ring. The fantasy of wealthy New Yorkers fleeing south meant big commissions.
And when I asked them how many calls they’d actually received?
Nothing. Yet.
Here’s my two cents on what’s actually happening: New Yorkers always start looking at Florida in November, December, January, and February. It’s cold. It’s gray. Winter in New York is a grind. And every year, a wave of people say, “I’m done.”
Then spring comes. They thaw. And they remember that there’s no place like New York.
And the little reliable data we do have? It shows that prices and activity in NYC is up over the past few months. The market here has been stronger and more robust than the headlines would have you believe. Inventory is still tight. Money is still abundant. Beautiful properties are still in demand.
Will this trend continue? Is it seasonal? Nobody knows.
But I can tell you with confidence that most of what you’re reading out there is data fit for a dumpster.
I have this hope that one day AI solves the real estate reporting problem. But I’m not holding my breath because ChatGPT still struggles to tell me today’s date.
For now, buyers and sellers will have to trust their agent. And hopefully choose one guided by truth and honesty, not by the temptation to dress up garbage numbers as wisdom.
⸻
Side Bar
To stay sane, I subscribe to a handful of daily newsletters—quick reads. Some of my favorites: The Daily Stoic, The Daily Dad, Money Stuff, anything from Sam Harris or Mel Robbins. This year I’ve also been reading Daily Thoughts to Nourish the Soul by Tolstoy.
Here were today’s passages:
“We have misconceptions not because we think illogically but because we live our lives badly.
Ignorance cannot lead to evil, misconceptions lead to evil.
It’s not what people do know, it’s what they pretend that they do.”
—Jean-Jacques Rousseau
“Every misconception is a poison: there are no harmless misconceptions.”
—Arthur Schopenhauer
“One of the evil properties of man is that he loves only himself and wants goodness only for himself. But woe to him who loves only himself!”
—Blaise Pascal
“The fight between the spiritual and material inner nature goes on in everyone. Thus, all people have misconceptions, and many will always mistake them for the truth.
To feed the hungry, to clothe the naked, to visit the ill in the hospital—these are acts of mercy, but there is one charitable deed which cannot be compared to them: to free your brother from misconception.”
—Leo Tolstoy
Let’s do this.
Shaun